Sunday 22 September 2013

Live NFL - Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins 6pm Sky Sports

I can't see past Detroit in this one. 

Washington's defense is horrible and looks incapable of a stop. Taking on megatron is a challenge at the best of times, but when you're giving up that type of yardage, it's fatal.

RGIII has gone from saviour to goat, with some people calling for him to be benched; what is clear, is that he is limited/rusty/lacking in confidence through the first two games. The read option has been used sparingly and he will be challenged by a ferocious Detroit front four today (what price Suh having a go at that knee?) and if Griffin doesn't up his game, it could be a long afternoon.

Garcon is the real deal and there's a decent run game in there to change things up, but much of the statistical evidence is distorted by the amount of garbage time Washington have played. If Morris can get to the edge, he can do some damage, but the Lions' D line is a tough go.

Detroit go through Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush and it looks as though the latter may miss this game. Joique Bell will likely play instead, but unfortunately for the hosts, he's a capable replacement and can take advantage of a Washington run defense ranking 29th.

A lot is being made of the 'must-win' position for Washington and Detroit's record in the nation's capital, but I'll take the Lions straight up.

A much more attractive proposition here is the Overs, in what may be the familiar Washington shoot-out.

Pick: Detroit Lions @ 1.95 (7-5, +1.68)
Pick: Over 48.5 @ 1.91 (3-2, +0.73)

Pick: 1st TD Robert Griffin III @ 15 (2-10, +14)
Pick: Anytime TD Pierre Garcon @ 2.2; Joique Bell @ 2.5 (4-8, -2.02)

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