Monday 10 December 2012

Live NFL - Houston Texans at New England Patriots BBC Red Button 1.30am

The New England defense keep generating turnovers as teams struggle to keep pace with their offense, which is its usual irresistible self: opponent's risk-taking has allowed the Pats to post a +17 turnover ratio and of course, fuel Tom Brady. The Texans bring an interesting gameplan though; they are a run first offense that sets up Schaub off play action - ball security is at a premium and they've only fumbled twice all season.
The key then, is for Houston to start well and test the New England defense. If Arian Foster gets going, it could be an interesting evening, as the home team's limited pass rush can expose a secondary that is still poor, despite the addition of Aqib Talib; Andre Johnson could put up numbers. The Pats have a decent enough run defense, but Foster is a significant challenge.

All that said, Tom Brady is going to be faced with a Texans' secondary that is on its knees, having been decimated by injury. New England only have to control the formidable J.J. Watt (a situation complicated by injuries to Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly) and Brady should be able to dissect what remains of the Houston pass defense. It's worth bearing in mind that twenty of the twenty-four TDs given up by Houston have been through the air, which is right in Brady's wheelhouse. New England are quietly putting together a nice run game too and although they could find themselves dropping into pass protection, look for Stevan Ridley close in.

I'm looking forward to this game, and although the Texans aren't getting the respect they deserve, Brady should be too much at home tonight. I give less than a TD.

Pick: New England Patriots -5.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD Aaron Hernandez @ 9; Stevan Ridley @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Wes Welker @ 2.1; Andre Johnson @ 2.1

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