Clay Buchholz is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last four matchups with the
Rays and 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last four starts at Tropicana Field.
This Rays lineup is hitting a collective .238 against him, but his form
this season has been horrible. Hellickson is toting a 2.05/7.56
WHIP/ERA line L3 (even worse on the road) and is putting too many people
on - a fatal error.
The story for Jeremy Hellickson is almost the direct opposite; his numbers on the season are excellent (1.15/3.12 L3) and he has been particularly strong at home. However, he is 2-1 lifetime with a 4.99 ERA against the Red Sox and this lineup is hitting .270 against him. He gave up 5 runs in 5 IP in April at Fenway.
Boston is hitting the cover off the ball at the moment (.305 vs righties L5) and Buchholz has got a ton of run support to hide his poor performances, so backing him is risky, but I won't back the home team at 1.71. So, I'll look for some value elsewhere and take the Red Sox surging bats and solid pen to get Bucholz home and cover it with Overs.
Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 13/10; 2.30; 130
Pick: Over 8.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100
The story for Jeremy Hellickson is almost the direct opposite; his numbers on the season are excellent (1.15/3.12 L3) and he has been particularly strong at home. However, he is 2-1 lifetime with a 4.99 ERA against the Red Sox and this lineup is hitting .270 against him. He gave up 5 runs in 5 IP in April at Fenway.
Boston is hitting the cover off the ball at the moment (.305 vs righties L5) and Buchholz has got a ton of run support to hide his poor performances, so backing him is risky, but I won't back the home team at 1.71. So, I'll look for some value elsewhere and take the Red Sox surging bats and solid pen to get Bucholz home and cover it with Overs.
Pick: Boston Red Sox @ 13/10; 2.30; 130
Pick: Over 8.5 @ Evens; 2.00; 100
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