I've been hammering away at the runline now and it has not gone well.
Last night was another choker, with the ChiSox going 3-13 RISP, plating 4
runs on 11 hits and I got stymied by the Rays' 3 runs on just 4 hits.
The maths of this bet are well documented, but essentially, if you
assume the heavy favourite wins the game, the chance of them beating the
runline too are about 70%. This rises even further for the road
favourite turned into a dog by betting the runline.
Tonight's game sees two sides on contrasting streaks (Det L3; Bos W3)
Scherzer is 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA - his highest against any opponent
- in four starts versus Boston, but has shown marked improvement
recently and even in the midst of serving up a high ERA on the season
has K'd a ton of batters.
Beckett is coming off three quality starts and this Tigers' lineup
is hitting .262 against him. He's solid at home, but is mighty short, so
I'll flog the dead horse once again.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ 6/4; 2.5; 150
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