NFL - Baltimore (5-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2)

Ch4, Monday November 7th, 1am

This should be the sort of throwback, brutal football I love: but it’s a very difficult pick.

The Ravens are flat out the best defensive team in football; 2^nd in points given up, 1^st in total yards, 3^rd in pass yards and 3^rd in rushing yards. The problem is Flacco, who is notoriously unpredictable and he’s facing a defense that is ranked respectively; 3^rd, 2^nd, 1^st and 8^th in the same defensive categories.

Pittsburgh have some key players out at LB; James Farrior and LaMarr Woodley are missing and James Harrison is carrying an injury and that must weaken the pass rush and make Ray Rice’s job at least marginally easier, although I doubt it means an armchair ride for him or Flacco.

Ben Roethlisberger has really stepped up this season and some of his younger receiving talent has improved as Ben’s form has surged, meaning that he has some fine targets downfield. Mike Wallace is such a talented receiver and gave the Ravens such a tough time, even in the Week 1 loss, that I expect him to draw a lot of coverage tonight, which may allow Antonio Brown, Hines Ward and Heath Miller to find a little space, although the latter may find himself blocking to help stem the Baltimore pass rush.

Rashard Mendenhall will have a tough night and his role is likely to be limited to relieving some pressure on Roethlisberger – and it shouldn’t be forgotten that as well as he’s playing, Big Ben occasionally makes errors under pressure and Terrell Suggs is something of a nemesis for the Steelers’ QB.

Joe Flacco is the difference here; he is limited and needs time and receivers who can get clear separation – in other words, he doesn’t have the skill set to put the ball in safe areas and let his receivers get there – and even then, he sometimes misses some open targets. Anquan Boldin is a favourite receiver (there’s not a lot else, in truth) but he will draw Ike Taylor who can physically dominate Boldin sufficiently to take him out of the game.

The Ravens will lean heavily on Ray Rice and he may be their best chance of taking out the Steelers tonight, both on the ground and catching out of the backfield, but again, the Steelers have bottled up runners well – my only reservation is their missing personnel.

As I said, this should be as tight as it will be brutal, but I think the balance is under centre. I’ll give the points.

Pick: Steelers -2.5 @ 1.91; -110;10/11

Pick: 1^st TD Mike Wallace @ 9.0; 800; 8/1

Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 3.1; 210; 21/10