Sky Sports, Sunday November 27th, 9.15pm
Another missing QB, but this replacement is
potentially more capable in the NFL. Caleb Hanie has been around the
organisation and its offense long enough, and has the skill set to keep
Chicago’s five game winning streak going; but it will be a tough ask in a
hostile Black Hole. Hanie went 13 for 20 for 153 yards a TD and an INT against
the Packers in the NFC Championship Game last January, so he can get it done.
Teams have to respect Matt Forte, who will see the
ball a lot (he has 40% of Chicago’s total yards this season) either running up
against a hobbled Richard Seymour, or catching out of the backfield (he has the
most receptions for the Bears) against the ponderous Oakland LBs – and that
should give Hanie precious time against an aggressive Raiders pass rush – look
for Kamerion Wimbley off the edge and Desmond Bryant and Tommy Kelly up the
middle.
The Bears have kept Cutler upright this season, and
the Raiders are banged up elsewhere on the D line, but it will still be a
challenge for Chicago to click on offense. For TD purposes, Marion Barber is
still getting the goal-line carries.
Out wide, Earl Bennett (averaging 83.7 yards per
game since coming back from injury) Johnny Knox, Roy Williams and Devin Hester
give Hanie options – and Hester will be his usual threat on returns – but
Oakland’s secondary is solid, particularly Stanford Routt at CB, so monitor
Forte’s progress closely if you bet in-running, because if he doesn’t fare
well, or the Bears fall behind early, things will get even more difficult for
Chicago. Bennett will be a favourite target in the slot, allowing Hanie to get
the ball out quickly.
On the other side of the ball, Chicago will have to
deal with Carson Palmer and Michael Bush – two of the biggest surprises to come
out of the West in a while. I have to be honest, I thought Palmer would
struggle more than he has after his difficult start and today he’ll go up
against a talented secondary with several of his wideouts injured or out.
The Bears need to get to the QB more often, but
still represent a threat along the line; Palmer was sacked four times last time
out, and Chicago are adept at manufacturing takeaways (a plus 11 ratio this
season) so he’ll need to lean heavily on Michael Bush who has carried the load
admirably, to the tune of 599 yards and 6 TDs, since McFadden went down.
The problem for Bush is that Chicago have become
tougher and tougher to run on as the season has gone on(restricting opposing
teams to 80 yards or less on the ground in the last five games) and if he can’t
get going, there’s every chance the Raiders’ O will stall. Look for Bush taking
on Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher; it may decide this game.
Deeper, Palmer has few options left fit to try and
exploit corners and safeties that occasionally struggle in coverage,
particularly where the receivers have pace, and it may fall to guys like Louis
Murphy, Kevin Boss and Chaz Schilens to step up, so check the injury reports
carefully before kick off to see if Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey and
Jacoby Ford are playing; even if they do go though, they’re likely to be limited.
The line opened at 4.5 and has come in to just a
field goal, and I’m not surprised. I like the Bears’ opportunistic defense to
be the difference here: I’ll take the points.
Pick: Bears +3 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Marion Barber @ 13; 1200;
12/1
Denarius Moore @ 11; 1000; 10/1
Pick: Anytime TD EarlBennett @ 3.4; 240; 12/5
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