Sky Sports, Sunday November 27th, 6pm
There’s a story (almost certainly apocryphal) about
a half-time talk by the Man Utd manager in a game of soccerball where he put
George Best and Bobby Charlton at one end of the dressing room and the rest of
the team at the other, “Now, you nine, just pass it to these two” he said.
Presumably, Gary Kubiak has had that kind of talk
with Matt Leinart and told him to hand it off to Arian Foster (292 rushing
yards in his last two games against the Jags) and Ben Tate (5.6 yards per carry
on the season) and, if he gets really tempted to throw it, he can hit Andre
Johnson or Owen Daniels. That’s it.
Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart isn’t horrible,
but he’s been holding a clipboard since Nov. 2008, so he needs to keep it
simple, and even though the Jags will stack the box with every warm body they
can, the Texans’ excellent offensive line should still be able to open up
running lanes. Terrance Knighton’s absence for Jacksonville last week was a
huge factor in Chris Ogbonnaya gashing the Jaguars and it looks like Knighton
is out this week too.
Of course, the return of Andre Johnson (146 yards
and a TD in his last game against Jags) means that stacking the box runsthe
risk of giving one of the most dangerous receivers in the game room to operate,
and with Jacksonville’s best corner missing and their next best gimpy, the risk
of letting Johnson match up one on one with what’s left may be too much for a
team that is beginning to struggle.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans’ defense
has been a revelation this year and Blaine Gabbert is going to have a rough
time, especially if he reproduces the sort of poor clock management and decision
making he showed at the end of last week’s game. Last time these teams met, he
went 10/30 for 97 yards, one TD and two INTs. It was clear that Gabbert doesn’t
enjoy the sort of aggressive pressure off the edge that Houston brings and the
rookie looks as though he doesn’t like getting hit and tends to fling the ball
to avoid contact; the Texans will bring the house.
That said, it’s worth noting that Gabbert isn’t the
offense in Jacksonville; it’s Maurice Jones-Drew, who only needs 59 yards for
1000 on the season. The problem for MJD is that the Texans are tough against
the run and with Gabbert under centre, there’s little to stop Wade Phillips
from concentrating on stopping Jones-Drew, so he should find it difficult to
dominate the way he has so far this season, with a strong linebacking corps led
by Brian Cushing to overcome.
At the perimeter, there’s not a lot for the Jags to
get excited about, partly because of the personnel, but also because the
Houston secondary is playing at a high enough level to shut what there is down.
There’s only really Marcedes Lewis who can match up (and that’s only because of
his size) but Gabbert seems unwilling to get him the ball.
The combination of a potent offense (even with
Leinart) and a defense that should give the Texans good field position throughout
and limit MJD means I take Houston as a very strong bet here.
Pick: Texans -6 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Arian Foster @ 5.0; 400; 4/1
Texans D @ 26; 2500; 25/1
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson @ 2.0; 100; Evens
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