NFL - Kansas City (4-5) at New England (6-3)

ESPN, Tuesday 22nd November, 1.30am

Horrible. Cassel is gone and to say Tyler Palko has a limited skill set is decidedly generous. To make matters worse for him, he's a left hander, meaning that the less than dazzling Barry Richardson will be protecting his blindside. New England haven't much of a pass rush, but they do have 20 on the season and got to Sanchez five times last week against the Jets.

Palko's lack of arm strength and poor skill set means that even with a Patriots' secondary that is so thin as to be almost non-existent (their only remaining starting corner, Devin McCourty, is out) the Chiefs will still find it difficult to move the ball through the air. This, in turn, impacts the ground game, because the lack of an aerial threat means New England can load up to stop Jackie Battle on the ground. Which just adds to the pressure on Palko, who will have no option but to put the ball up - particularly as Kansas are likely to be behind from the off.

Tom Brady should be able to beat a defense who have the lowest number of sacks in the NFL (there's only really Tamba Hali to worry about) because although CBs Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr have talent, Brady will have time to pick his targets and the secondary is weak over the middle; the New England tight ends will get a lot of looks and Rob Gronkowski will score. On the ground, 'the law firm' should see time at the end and score, but is too short in the market to be of real interest.

Is it wise to give 16.5 points on MNF? No, absolutely not. So while I think New England will cover, I would advise against smashing in giving better than two TDs. This is a game best watched, with a couple of side bets to spice things up.

Pick: Patriots -16.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski @ 8.00; 700; 7/1

1st TD Deion Branch @ 13; 1200; 12/1

Pick: Anytime TD Chad Ochocinco @ 4.0; 300; 3/1