Sky Sports, Sunday November 20th, 6pm
Flacco, the bettor’s nightmare; back him and he’ll
look like he’s only just discovered football (like last week against Seattle)
then oppose him and he’ll drive 90 yards in the last minute to win the game to
beat the Steelers.
Assessing a QB in capping a football game can’t be
overestimated, he’s the beating heart of a team, and everything goes through
him, but with some triggermen it’s really a question of looking at how well a
team can perform in spite of him (see Grossman, Rex) and survive his mistakes
(see Beck, John).
In this game it’s particularly difficult, because
Flacco has traditionally struggled going up against Mike Zimmer and the Bengals
– two TDs, nine interceptions, eleven sacks and a 48.2 passer rating in his
past four games against them do not inspire confidence. The Cincinnati defense
though, have lost CB Leon Hall, who has been outstanding this year, and are
carrying some injuries on the line, most notably to DE Carlos Dunlap and a
still limping Rey Maualuga.
As a result, Flacco should be able to test the
Bengals deep and get after players like Nate Clements, Kelly Jennings, Brandon
Ghee and the injured Pacman Jones; look for some deep passes early to Torrey
Smith to test the Cincy safeties Chris Crocker and Reggie Nelson who won’t be
able to match Smith’s vertical speed. Anquan Boldin should find plenty of
passes coming his way as one of Flacco’s favourite targets, and I expect him to
do rather better than last week’s two grabs.
Cam Cameron ditched the run against Seattle when
they got behind and let Flacco throw it 52 times, badly. Today I expect Ray
Rice to get more touches, even against this excellent run D, because that lack
of balance just didn’t work and if the Steelers moved the ball ok on the ground
last week, Ray Rice should find some room running and catching.
Andy Dalton will be tested tonight – this is a
massive game in terms of the AFC North and by extension, the wildcard race, and
the Ravens are coming off a loss to a team they should have handled relatively
easily.
Although the loss of Ray Lewis is massive,
Baltimore will still mount an aggressive pass rush to put the rookie under as
much pressure as possible. Dalton has been impressive under centre and one of
the reasons is the Bengals’ O line that has given Dalton excellent protection
and time to work. Chuck Pagano though, will bring all sorts of exotic blitz
packages and Terrell Suggs, Pernell McPhee and Ed Reed will likely reach him at
some stage.
Dalton’s biggest problem though, is the loss of
A.J. Green who, even if he plays, is likely to be severely limited. There are
decent options downfield, but the Ravens have a capable secondary and he may
find his targets struggling to get separation. Cedric Benson is an interesting
play today as the traditionally tight Baltimore run D has given up some yards
recently, and with Ray Lewis missing he may get quite a few touches if Dalton
begins to struggle.
I keep giving the points this season, which is not
actually my preferred approach as I like opposing favourites in football, but
with Green out/limited and the Ravens at home and in a bad mood, I think this
will be an arm wrestle, and I see Baltimore a TD better. Shop for the 6.5.
Pick:
Ravens -6.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick:
1st TD Torrey Smith @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Jerome
Simpson @ 17.0; 1600; 16/1
Pick:
Anytime TD Anquan Boldin @ 2.25; 125; 5/4
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