Monday 7 November 2011

NFL - Chicago (4-3) at Philadelphia (3-4)

ESPN, Tuesday November 8th, 1.30am

The same may apply here as with the Jets; the Eagles seem to be coming together because they’ve sorted out how best to use the players they have on the roster. This fits with the theory about the impact of the lockout, and how it hit some teams particularly badly; I’ve talked about why Philadelphia may fall into this category, so I won’t bore you again (it isn’t my original theory anyway!)

Last week, Vick and the Eagles were very impressive. One of the reasons it’s beginning to click on offense is that they’ve moved away from just a big play team and come to terms with just moving the chains before trying to complete a 50 yard TD pass, or break off a huge running play. If Philadelphia can stick with that mentality, then they can become the sum of their stellar parts. If not, and they get too cocky on the back of some success, then it’s back to broken plays and Vick scrambling nowhere and throwing picks.

Vick has plenty of weapons now that he’s looking beyond his own running and his primary receivers, and although I expect DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to get targeted deep and LeSean McCoy to see plenty of touches (another smart tweak by Reid) look for Celek and Avant underneath against the Bears’ Cover-Two defense to keep the offense rolling. Chicago’s safeties have struggled all season and can be exploited.

Jay Cutler is still working behind a weak O line, and tonight could bet very tough against the Eagles’ Wide-Nine pass rush. His already pretty average options downfield should be further limited as Chicago is forced to drop TEs into pass protection if Cutler comes under too much pressure as Philadelphia bring everyone, safe in the knowledge that even if he throws back against the pressure, their corners will cope.

Cutler’s lifeline will be Matt Forte and expect him to be used in screens (why the Bills weren’t doing that with Jackson until late in the game, I’ll never understand) to try and break up the defense and attack the weakest element of that D; the Eagles linebackers. Forte has been outstanding so far, even in this limited O, and he’s a threat to score tonight.

Giving up more than a TD in MNF is crazy, and if these teams were called A and B, I’d take the points, but the way these two match up, I just can’t see Chicago hanging in there. Let’s just hope hubris and showmanship don’t get the better of the ‘dream team’ on national TV.

Pick: Eagles -7.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11

Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 13; 1200; 12/1
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin @ 2.1; 110; 11/10

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