Sky Sports, Sunday November 13th, 9.15pm
This game really hinges on the 49ers running game
and their defense; if San Francisco move the ball on the ground, they win,
because their strong defense should handle the Giants’ depleted offense.
Jim Harbaugh says Alex Smith is an elite QB, and it’s
certainly true that the HC has rebuilt a guy who was circling the plughole not
long ago, but he’s done that by designing a gameplan that doesn’t ask too much
of him and lets him get rid of the pill quickly.
The Giants are an excellent pass rush D and don’t
need to bring lots of players to get pressure (look for the matchup of Joe
Staley on Jason Pierrer-Paul, it’ll be the key to keeping Smith upright) and if
Smith gets into third and long situations, then the 49ers will be vulnerable.
Remember too, that slowing the rhythm of a pass offense
like the Giants’ and keeping Manning off the field is also critical. Luckily
for HC Harbaugh, New York have struggled to stop the run all season and so it
fits nicely with the game he’d want to play because San Francisco will run, run
and run some more. Gore’s fitness is vital to their success, although don’t
discount Kendall Hunter, who is an exciting talent.
As I mentioned, Eli Manning has a few guys nicked
up in the receiving corps, and he’ll have to look at some of his other options
deep; I like Victor Cruz to make a couple of plays today – he’s a big unit with
plenty of strength and gets separation even in tight coverage. Manning may have
to throw a lot tonight, so a little interest in Cruz to score looks in order.
Look also for Jake Ballard who is often in space as the Giants shove their receivers
deep and the 49ers have occasionally struggled in coverage underneath.
The 49ers defense has been extraordinary. I had
written a very long, detailed description of their strengths and then realised
it’s probably not what people want to read! Suffice to say, their LB corps is
performing at a stellar level and has made it very difficult for the opposition
to move the chains on the ground or through the air. Manning is for real, but
has been known to make bad decisions when hurried (look for Aldon Smith off the
edge) and it wouldn’t surprise me to see turnovers – it’s no accident that the
49ers have a +12 turnover advantage.
This is probably the game for the No.2 seeding in
the NFC playoff picture, so there’s plenty at stake, and I anticipate a close
one, but I’ll just favour the home team behind their running game and their
defense.
Pick:
49ers -4 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick:
1st TD Vernon Davis @ 13.0; 1200; 12/1
Jake
Ballard @ 17; 1600; 16/1
Pick:
Anytime TD Victor Cruz @ 2.3; 130; 13/10
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