This is a HUGE game, it’s unlikely three teams are going to
progress from the AFC East, so the stakes could not be higher.
Have the Jets got it together? Well, they seem to be making
progress on offense – perhaps because Nick Mangold being back in game shape has
set Shonn Greene rolling and their receivers have started to catch a few balls,
but they’re still not stopping the run too well and that’s a problem with Fred Jackson
tearing it up; Fitzpatrick has also shown real talent under centre.
Mark Sanchez is essentially a game manager, which is hardly
what it said on the box when the Jets unpacked him and today he’ll be handing
it off to Greene and LT a lot. Sanchez still lacks the consistency of a top NFL
QB and worryingly, if the Jets get behind, they will be forced to throw on a
Bills’ defense that is opportunistic – the Bills boast a +9 turnover ratio.
That’s worth bearing in mind for you in-running bettors; if the Jets’ runners
don’t hit some gaps early, you might want to adjust your exposure.
Greene/LT can get it done because although Marcell Dareus
and Dwan Edwards did well last week, I think we’ll begin to see the impact of
the loss of Kyle Williams in this game and Buffalo rank 20th against
the run. Deeper, the Jets have talent with Holmes, Burress (if he goes), and
Keller (who matches up nicely here on less mobile Buffalo LBs) and the success
of the run game may mean Sanchez find a little time and room.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (find a spread on the mention of him attending
Harvard and sell it!) has been solid, but he’ll face a very different defense
to the declining Redskins of last week. A more aggressive pass rush will test a
Bills’ offensive line that is nicked up and may struggle to give their QB the
usual time to move in the pocket and hit receivers as efficiently as he has
previously this season.
Steve Johnson looks bound for Revis Island. Scott Chandler
is an interesting play in the TD market; the Jets often like to put six
defensive backs in and Chandler can match up nicely because of his size.
Fitzpatrick gives him the occasional look in the redzone and his reception to
TD conversion rate is high.
Fred Jackson is the key to this game; he has been a horse
this year (I love the story about his wife drafting him in the 5th
round in her fantasy league) and will have to carry his side today. As I
mentioned above, the Jets like to use sub-packages on D to pack the box and that
might complicate things for the Bills - it’s a tactical matchup I’m looking
forward to, but Jackson might just blow this game up if the New York D can’t
slow him down.
I’m going to take the Jets here - they will run first and if
they get ahead, they’ll hope the defense can choke off the game, but the Bills
are more than capable of winning here, so don’t bet the kids’ lunch money.
However, New York are marginally better balanced and if they
can just hang on to Fred Jackson, they can win this. I like the Overs too.
Pick: Jets +3 @ 1.83; -120; 5/6
Pick: Over 45 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Plaxico Burress @ 15; 1400; 14/1
Pick: Anytime TD Scott Chandler @ 2.63; 162; 13/8
Dustin Keller @ 2.63; 162; 13/8
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